Bitcoin (BTC) speculators have secured losses of over $100 million in just six weeks thanks to panic selling, new research calculates.
Data from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant reveals the true extent of recent capitulation by short-term holders (STHs).
Bitcoin speculators run to the exit “in the red”
Bitcoin entities hodling coins between one and three months bore the brunt of a brutal bull market drawdown — and many did not stay the course.
CryptoQuant suggests that this section of the overall STH investor cohort, defined as those buying up to six months ago, is around $100 million out of pocket.
“This represents a significant reduction in the value of Bitcoin held by this cohort, who are now underwater as many bought at higher prices and are exiting with losses,” contributor Onchained wrote in one of its “Quicktake” blog posts on March 13.
Onchained referenced the market cap and realized cap of the relevant entities, corresponding to the current value of the BTC they own versus the price at which they last moved onchain.
“The market capitalization (MC) of their holdings is now lower than the realized capitalization (RC), signaling that these holders are locking in realized losses,” the post continues.
“This behavior is contributing to increased selling pressure and could lead to further downward price action in the short term.”
Bitcoin 1-3 month investor market cap, realized cap (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant
An accompanying chart shows a dramatic negative weekly change in the realized cap on a scale not seen in many months.
The cohort’s net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) score, currently at -0.19, likewise suggests more coins being held “underwater” than at any time over the past year.
Bitcoin 1-3 month investor NUPL. Source: CryptoQuant
BTC price drawdown belies “broader bearish phase”
February marks just the latest trial for recent Bitcoin buyers, with BTC/USD losing up to 30% versus its latest all-time highs seen in mid-January.
Related: Bitcoin price drops 2% as falling inflation boosts US trade war fears
As Cointelegraph reported, sudden corrections have tended to cost speculative investors heavily, with loss-making sales commonplace as fear and panic set in.
Large-volume entities, meanwhile, are increasingly ignoring short-term BTC price fluctuations to add exposure at levels around $80,000.
In its latest weekly report seen by Cointelegraph on March 12, CryptoQuant warned that the current correction may be more tenacious than it appears on the surface.
“Historically, bull market corrections tend to be short-lived and followed by strong recoveries, but current on-chain indicators point to a potential structural shift that could preclude a broader bearish phase,” it summarized.
Bitcoin price drawdowns by year. Source: CryptoQuant
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
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